Ambitious.  That about sums up our President’s address to the nation last night.  Obama is promising the country almost everything.  The problem is, everything is pretty hard to deliver upon.  Does this mean that if we don’t end up getting “everything” that he has failed?  Might it not have been better to scale back the promises, if not the intent, and work on just a few things.  My concern here is heightened by the fact that the risks are so great.

A good “news analysis” of President Obama’s speech last night is provided by Peter Baker in the New York Times this morning.  It’s entitled In Time of Crisis, Urging Bold Action and Big Ideas.  I am personally encouraged we have a leader of the apparent caliber and self-confidence of Barack Obama, but I’m concerned that he can pull it off. 

My concerns are heightened by his ambitious energy goals.  Knowing what I know about energy I am concerned that his other goals are equally ungrounded in reality.  Obama talks about a renewable energy future but doesn’t acknowledge the critical role of the fossil present.  He talks about weaning ourselves from foreign oil but doesn’t discuss the pain it will take to get there.  When Obama promises to double our use of renewable energy that means going from 7% to 14%.  Good, but not enough to wean us from foreign oil, especially when just 7% of renewable energy goes to transportation today.  Today the country is 96% reliant on oil for transportation, the majority of that imported.  The remainder comes from natural gas (2%) and renewables (2%).  A real solution to dependence upon foreign oil will require increased domestic production of oil and natural gas.  To achieve this Obama will have to face down the liberals of his party and environmental groups and convince them that the path to both energy independence and a renewable future involves medium-term dependence on American-produced fossil fuels.  This is the reality.  The other is fantasy.  Will Obama get it right?  I have hope but significant doubts.  Our present system will make it very difficult for him to buck the environmental left on this.  If he doesn’t buck it, he cannot achieve energy independence and the country loses.  If he does buck it, he risks lose a key constituency and significant Congressional support.  Watch how this develops.  If we don’t open the offshore to significant new development we’re operating in fantasy land and Obama’s stated energy goals are likewise fantasy and will fall short.  If he does it, maybe he’s indeed got what it takes.

In the meantime we watch, and hope.